Friday, 14 January 2011

What are the Liberal Democrats actually for?

I'm deeply sympathetic to the Liberal Democrats. My father is one, I was raised as one and many of my friends are members of the party. As a social and economic liberal, certain analyses might suggest that the Liberal Democrats are my natural political home. So it is not out of hostility that I pose the question in the title. Rather, my mulling over the OE&S by-election result led me to realise that the Liberal Democrats don't appear to have a genuine third position as party, and that the aims of each wing might be better served by merging with the majority party of that wing.

To address the first point. In discussions with others and in my own quite extensive writing about the nature of the Liberal Democrats, one thing that is almost taken as read is that the Liberal Democrats are really a party of two distinct halves: the right-leaning economic Liberals and the left-leaning Social Democrats. Even if the labels don't draw exact parallels with the two predecessor parties, they remain relatively accurate. One complaint from a Liberal Democrat councillor rather sums this up: "We are a party of largely social liberals being led by largely economic liberals" - or Orange Bookers. The idea that Clegg represents a different wing of his party to the bulk of its membership has interesting implications for coalition politics that I have discussed elsewhere. But the existence of this cleavage raises the question of why the Liberal Democrats need to exist as a third party at all.

The original Liberal Party had pretty clear reasons for continuing to exist after being supplanted by Labour in the earlier Twentieth Century. It bore with it the great name and great figures of a once great party. It continued to enjoy political patronage from the Bonham-Carters and the rest of the wealthy Liberal aristocracy. After the war and at least up to (if not including) the Jo Grimond era, the party also espoused a genuine political third position: liberalism, distinct as it was then from the cosy post-war corporatist consensus of the two main parties. Although small, it continued to doggedly fight on representing the ideology it represented. However, as the Twentieth Century advanced several misfortunes befell it.

The first of these was Margaret Thatcher. Although Heath had made an early and rather ill-fated start to bring the Conservatives out of the patrician Macmillan style, it was Margaret Thatcher who pulled it off. With her economic liberalism and aggressive pitch to aspirational voters of the lower and middle classes, she moved the already monolithic Conservative Party onto traditional Liberal territory with great success. Aided greatly by luck and her not-inconsiderable political skill she embedded economic liberalism into the Conservative marrow, and the small Liberals were in no position to seriously challenge her. Compounding this misfortune was the emergence of the Social Democratic Party. When debating their withdrawal from an increasingly hard-left Labour Party, some of the SDP defectors considered whether or not to cross straight to the Liberals. The reason they didn't was quite simple: "We weren't liberals." However, sheer electoral necessity soon led to the SDP forming a close working arrangement with the Liberals, further weakening the right-leaning economic liberals who had already seen much of their territory occupied by Thatcherism. That wing did not go away, however.

After the parties eventually merged, this left a party that was largely cobbled together out of political necessity, with no unified and distinct vision for the country's future. Additionally, the party began to attract and to chase protest votes, providing a further impediment to the production of a Liberal Democrat 'ideology'. Not only was this problematic for the party, but it raises the spectre that each wing of the Liberal Democrats might be served better by the party's dissolution.

After all, if you take away cheerleading for electoral reform (a position at least in part the product of the Liberal Democrats being the third party) and the pursuit of protest votes, how has the existence of the Liberal Democrats helped each of their disparate wings? For the social democrats, they originally left Labour because it was far too hard-left. In a post-New Labour environment there seems reason not to return to the Labour fold. After all, if Labour still has a hard left, authoritarian streak it must be in no small part because centre-left liberals are attracted to the Liberal Democrats, who when not in coalition (most of the time) contribute nothing to government. If the social democrats rejoined Labour and started attracting others like them to the party they could soften its authoritarian edge, widen its appeal and make it more electable.

The liberal right faces the same conundrum. The Conservative Party already contains social and economic liberals (myself included), and economic liberalism is certainly at the heart of the modern Conservative Party. The support of the like of Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Laws et al has been instrumental in allowing David Cameron to outmanoeuvre his own hard right wing. Many of them would be comfortably at home on the liberal wing of the Conservative Party, but when they're not in coalition (again, most of the time) both their talents and their balancing influence are wasted in futile third-party opposition.

With the exception perhaps of PR, I can't see much benefit for either the social democrats or the liberals in banding together in a schizophrenic third-party project instead of exerting a softening and balancing influence on the internal compositions of the two main parties.

Tuesday, 11 January 2011

New Look

OK, so I finally followed O'Neill in using Bloggers design tools. Aside from slight annoyances like being unable to centre my title, I'm quite pleased with the result.

Monday, 10 January 2011

Viral Video: Clegg at Conference

I don't normally post this sort of thing on here, but this is far and away the best Clegg ripping video I've seen yet.


Thursday, 6 January 2011

Would a Liberal Democrat victory in Oldham push the Coalition further left?

In his Telegraph blog, Lord Tebbit briefly covers the upcoming Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election. Although his discussion is not (and is not intended to be) an in-depth analysis of that election or its ramifications, he does make the interesting assertion that he thinks that a Liberal Democrat victory would push the coalition further to the left. Having given it some thought, I have drawn the opposite conclusion.

From what I can tell, the chain of reasoning that leads to the conclusion drawn by Lord Tebbit is thus. Arithmetically speaking, adding a northern Liberal Democrat to the parliamentary coalition dilutes by a small factor the Conservative presence and tilts the balance of power towards the Liberal Democrats to some degree.

But beyond that, I can't see what else supports such a conclusion. Moreover there are several factors that lead one to the opposite conclusion altogether. First, there is the issue over how left-wing northern Liberal Democrats actually are. Although I can't find the article now, I read recently someone advising Labour not to treat LD voters as a homogeneous bloc, and that northern LDs were 'tough as nails' on certain issues such as crime and welfare fraud. So the very left-wingedness of Mr Watkins might be overstated.

More serious is the fact that a Liberal Democrat defeat is more likely to make or require the Conservative leadership to cede more ground to an increasingly panicked Liberal Democrat left. A powerful triumvirate of factors make this such a potent election for the Liberal Democrats: they were within a whisker of taking OE&S at the last election; the Labour candidate ran such a dirty campaign that he's led to the first court overturning of an election result in nearly a century; and by-elections have been the Liberal Democrat strong suit since Orpington in 1962. If they weren't in government, this election would probably be as close as they get to a sure thing outside of Orkney and Shetland.

So if they lose, the psychological consequences could be severe. It will cause further panic amongst the Liberal Democrat left who Nick Clegg apparently already considers "electorally dead". Be that as it may, in the current parliament they still have the ability to cause severe problems for the Coalition. If they become serial rebels or even defectors, the coalition is doubly hit: not only is its majority and credibility reduced, but every loss from one extreme weakens the opposite extreme at the expense of the centre and the leadership. Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander and other right-wing Liberal Democrats will come under increasing pressure from their activists, councillors and left-wing MPs to make trouble for the coalition or leave altogether. Like it or not the country currently needs the stable government only the Coalition can offer and so for the country's sake the Conservative leadership would have to offer yet more carrots and inducements to the yellow left.

In short, a Liberal Democrat victory would make the Liberal Democrat left feel that the present balance was more palatable than it might otherwise seem, and a defeat would invigorate their resistance. Despite my pro-Coalition stance, this blogger is still a Conservative and so this realisation poses some problems for me. On the one hand, like any Conservative I want Kashif Ali to win in Oldham - I'm hopefully going to help out myself sometime next week. However, as a Conservative I also want to see minimal ground ceded to the social democrats within the LDs to keep the coalition going. Its a tough call to make.

Conservative Spring Forum

The Conservative Spring Forum is in Cardiff this year, during the Welsh Party Conference. I'm considering getting a ticket, especially given that I sadly missed the Welsh Conservatives during the conference. If so, I'll provide my usual conference services as roving pro-Union reporter, and hopefully get a face to face chat with Nick Bourne, to follow up on my letter.

Tuesday, 4 January 2011

Alas, Ed Miliband

During the Labour leadership contest, I was in the unusual position of being a Conservative who had the opportunity both to put a question to a leadership candidate and to influence the vote (courtesy of a relative's utter disinterest in their union vote - I advised Andy Burnham followed by David Miliband). I also know a fair number of Labour activists socially. Therefore I expected it to be interesting watching Ed Miliband attempt to establish himself at the helm of the recently rousted Labour Party and try to chart a new course for it.

Sadly, I was wrong. In the opinions of the Guardian, Daily Mail and ConservativeHome Mili-E's symbolic hundred days as leader have been a bland disappointment. The Mail go so far as to consider Miliband as Labour's IDS, which must surely be one of the most terrifying comparisons imaginable for a struggling party leader facing a potentially long stretch in opposition. The New Statesman is - as one might expect - more even handed in its approach, adopting for its article a format that requires it to find a merit to balance every blemish.

My personal opinion of Miliband is coloured somewhat by the event I attended at the University of Manchester for his leadership campaign. Ed had been in touch with the Students Union at Manchester before, including an interview with the student paper with pull quote "I'm in favour of people shouting at me in Parliament Square". Fantastic, I thought. A party leader who might be up for some real questions. And lo and behold, when the leadership campaign came around the event 'In Conversation with Ed Miliband' came to Manchester Student Union. Myself and many other students - of many political colourings - were looking forward to the event.

But it was not to be. Shockingly, the sentinels at the door - at the behest of Ed Miliband's minders - made their best efforts to prevent any students from other parties getting in, in direct contravention of Student Union policy. I myself was the only Conservative who was allowed to pass thanks to being friends with the Labour Students organising the event, alongside one very discrete Lib Dem who happened to work for the Student Paper. Not even getting into the room and finding a seat saved him from further harassment, as a particularly infamous minder and ex-Manchester student still tried to get him out, to no avail.

The question and answer session itself was disappointing: Ed was dependably populist in front of a filtered, deeply pro-Labour audience. Thankfully, the Chair was local MP Tony Lloyd rather than a student politician and I got selected to ask a question. My question was on Labour and Northern Ireland - essentially whether or not he agreed with both Andy Burnham* and David Miliband* that the time had come for Labour to consider organising in the province. Apparently a genuinely unexpected question, Ed Miliband dodged it, making a lot of smoke out of 'not wanting to upset the peace process' (a phrase he used about five times) to cover the retreat.

I was disappointed, not just by his lack of unionist commitment, inability to think on his feet or populist tendencies but more by the shocking way in which his team had sought to strictly and covertly control who was allowed into a supposedly open forum. And he continues to disappoint now that he's won. His New Year message still smacks of the same pure opposition, with few hints of alternative policy.

He displays the same lack of flair and inability to think on his feet. He shows the same tendencies towards populist oppositionalism without investing much time or thought on the new policy direction his party desperately needs. His election at the hands of a handful of trade unionists, against the wishes of party members and MPs, continues to undermine him. Most importantly, he continues to fail to reach out or appeal to voters outside the Labour faithful. Reaching beyond a party base is a skill, and if you're not born with it it needs to be learned. It doesn't look like his coterie of minders offered him any opportunity to do that on the road to office, and its telling now.

*Andy Burnham's original article in the Newsletter and David Miliband's short video to Northern Ireland members could not be located for reference.

Monday, 3 January 2011

Liberal Conservative Merger in the MSM

Given the relative frequency with which I cover the ongoing relationship and potential futures of the Liberal Democrat party and their coalition partners, I won't launch into yet another analysis piece. This is just to let you know that this sort of discussion has, after a delay of some months, finally graced the pages of the mainstream press - specifically, the Daily Telegraph. And it has got the paleo-conservative elements of the Conservatives spooked enough to elicit this piece from Roger Helmer MEP over at ConHome.

Update: And yet more.