Liberal Democrat Collapse: Who Benefits?

In this week's Spectator, Nick Cohen (of whom I am a great fan) has written Liberal England Dies Again, arguing that power and the rise of a new economic crisis that has revived old left-right divisions is leading to a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote. Several Labour friends of mine are celebrating this fact, which confused me. Surely the Liberal Democrats, if they are a party of the 'progressive left', can reach seats that Labour could not? Given the number of southern seats the Liberal Democrats hold, wouldn't a collapse benefit the Conservatives?

Below, I have compiled a list of all the seats the Liberal Democrats won in the 2010 election, along with the majority and the party presently in second place. If the chasing parties are within 2000-3000 votes, I have included them both listed in vote order. Out of a total of 57 Liberal Democrat seats, there is a Conservative advantage in 35, a Labour advantage in 12, a Plaid Cymru advantage in 1 and a multi-party advantage in 9. So Labour supporters revelling in the suffering of the Liberal Democrats should have some pause for thought. Seats marked with an asterisk are Scottish, with the relevant possible impact on Conservative prospects.

Solihull – Maj. 175 - Conservative

Mid Dorset and North Poole – Maj. 269 – Conservative

Norwich South – Maj. 310 – Labour/Conservative

Bradford East – Maj. 365 – Labour/Conservative

Wells – Maj. 800 – Conservative

St Austell & Newquay – Maj. 1312 – Conservative

Brent Central – Maj. 1345 – Labour

Sutton and Cheam – Maj. 1606 – Conservative

St Ives – Maj. 1719 – Conservative

Somerton and Frome – Maj. 1817 – Conservative

Burnley – Maj. 1818 – Labour

Manchester Withington – Maj. 1894 – Labour

East Dunbartonshire* – Maj. 2184 – Labour

Chippenham – Maj. 2470 – Conservative

Berwick-upon-Tweed – Maj. 2690 – Conservative

North Cornwall – Maj. 2981 – Conservative

Birmingham Yardley – Maj. 3002 – Labour

Cheadle – Maj. 3270 – Conservative

Argyll and Bute* – Maj. 3431 – Conservative/Labour/SNP

Eastbourne – Maj. 3435 – Conservative

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine* – Maj. 3684 – Conservative

Brecon and Radnorshire – Maj. 3747 – Conservative

Edinburgh West* – Maj. 3803 – Labour/Conservative

Eastleigh – Maj. 3864 – Conservative

Taunton Dean – Maj. 3993 – Conservative

Torbay – Maj. 4078 – Conservative

Cheltenham – Maj. 4290 – Conservative

Cardiff Central – Maj. 4576 – Labour

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross* – Maj. 4826 – Labour

Portsmouth South – Maj. 5200 – Conservative

Redcar – Maj. 5214 – Labour

Carshalton and Wallington – Maj. 5260 – Conservative

North Southwark and Bermondsey – Maj. 5406 – Labour

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk* – Maj. 5675 – Conservative

North Devon – Maj. 5821 – Conservative

Southport – Maj. 6024 – Conservative

Hazel Grove – Maj. 6371 – Conservative

Gordon – Maj. 6748 – Labour

Cambridge – Maj. 6792 – Conservative/Labour

Colchester – Maj. 6928 – Conservative

Thornbury & Yate – Maj. 7116 – Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton – Maj. 7560 - Conservative

Lewes – Maj. 7647 – Conservative

Hornsey and Wood Green – Maj. 7875 – Labour

Ceredigion – Maj. 8324 – Plaid Cymru

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey* – Maj. 8765 – Labour/SNP/Conservative

North East Fife* – Maj. 9048 – Conservative

Leeds North West – Maj. 9103 – Conservative/Labour

Orkney and Shetland* – Maj. 9928 – Labour/SNP/Conservative

Bristol West – Maj. 11,336 – Labour

North Norfolk – Maj. 11,626 – Conservative

Bath – Maj. 11,883 – Conservative

Twickenham – Maj. 12,140 – Conservative

Westmorland and Lonsdale – Maj. 12,264 – Conservative

Yeovil – Maj. 13,036 – Conservative

Ross, Skye and Lochaber* – Maj. 13,070 – Labour/SNP/Conservative

Sheffield Hallam – Maj. 15,284 - Conservative